Andrew Hebden is Assistant Editor (Business) of The Journal »
Matt James runs fingerprint-recognition technology firm UKB Security »
James Mills is a web developer in the North East of England and founder of Refresh Teesside »
Phil Renton is managing director of North East IT empire Croft »
Andrew Mernin is the Digital Journalist for nebusiness »
Matthew Rippon is an IP lawyer for BHP Law »
Formerly editor of a national business lifestyle magazine, Jez Davison is a business writer for the Evening Gazette in Teesside »
Ian Brown, Northumberland farmer and businessman writes about the agricultural industry »
Accessibilty Champion Steve Wilkinson on the importance of inclusion »
Shared Interest Staff at Newcastle's fair trade firm blog on their latest international missions »
PR man David Honeywell on raising your profile in the right places »
Marion Bernard is from NorthStar Equity Investors »
Paul Williamson is from Deloitte »House prices will fall by a further 15%, unemployment will spiral to more than two million, the FTSE will plunge below 3,500 and business failures will reach record levels.
Or... shares will rally sharply, banks and commercial property will spark a sustained economic fightback and cheap bargains will send consumers flooding back to the high street.
If the market has bottomed out, the latter view could hold some credence and recovery, not recession, will be the "r" word on everybody's lips.
But if the slide continues, 2009 could bear the most painful scars of this year's financial crash.
Anthony Bolton, one of the City's best-known stockpickers and fund managers, is firmly entrenched in the optimistic camp, reportedly claiming that commercial property could kick-start a sustained bull run.
He also says, according to the recent report in The Sunday Times, that banks are a good investment opportunity and will return to growth.
Before anyone questions his sanity, Mr Bolton apparently delivered average annual returns of around 20% during his time as manager of Fidelity's Special Situations fund, compared with 7.7% from the FTSE All-Share index.
But his view does seem wildly optimistic, even if we accept his view that the markets tend to bottom out 6-12 months before the economy.
With a few exceptions, battening down the hatches rather than growth is the overriding mindset for local business as annus horribilis gives way to something potentially even more painful.
But with large-scale infrastructure projects in the pipeline, a skilled manufacturing base and a diverse knowledge economy, Tees Valley should fare slightly better than other parts of the UK.
With the so-called experts struggling to reach consensus on what will happen next year, I will offer the following (provisional) predictions:
- The economy will contract further during the first two quarters, level out in the third and (just) reach positive territory in the fourth.
- Consumer confidence and spending power will return in time for next Christmas.
- House prices will continue to fall by a further 5-10% before rebounding in 2010.
- Access to credit from major banks will be a lingering problem for business - and local council-run banks could be the answer.
- Defensive stocks and green technologies will be a safe bet. Investment in undervalued land and property is not for the risk-averse but could bring lucrative longer-term gains.
- Post to:
del.icio.us
Digg
Newsvine
Nowpublic
Reddit
« Previous | Home | Next »