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Future Gazing

Posted by Julian christopher on January 6, 2009 1:06 PM | 

They say the immediacy of the Internet is everything. Well, I've found something even more immediate - the insistent squawks of a new baby, who, along with her big brother and sister, kept me rather occupied through much of 2008, and a tad too occupied to keep up with this blog. Apologies to you, my loyal reader, for the lack of recent posts - I'll try to do better this year.

Not much been going on since I last posted, really - just little stuff like the election of the US's first black President, Team GB outstripping the Aussies at the Beijing Olympics (the words "GB outstripping the Aussies" are always a pleasure to write in any context), the Second Going of the Tyneside Messiah, the sad disappearance of Woolies from the high street, and the collapse of the global economy. Karl Marx - sorry, yes, you were right after all.

In the media world, it's been a similarly quiet time. I vaguely recall something about Jonathan Brand and Russell Sachs upsetting a chap called Andrew Ross a while ago, but that's about it - like I said, I have been rather busy...

So what does 2009 hold in the media, aside from a Doctor Who who's still young enough to make it as a CBeebies presenter if he doesn't enjoy being a Time Lord?

In terms of broadcasting, the biggest recent trend has perhaps been the desperation of programmers to get you to watch or listen to their offerings on every possible platform, and it's one that shows no sign of abating. The BBC iPlayer has been a massive success, and ITV is now pushing its own version extremely hard, along with using soap stars to trail the new way in which their viewers can pause live TV (just like they've been able to do on Sky for ages...).

Add in the increasing numbers of shows that are getting their debuts online, and you can see how much the balance of broadcasting power has shifted to the viewers - but then given that there's so much choice out there now, it's no wonder that when we say 'jump,' those that wish to entertain us say 'how high?'

The collapse of a number of well-known retail names and the impact of the economic downturn in general is going to put further pressure on already-declining advertising revenues, especially in newspapers, and online is once again going to be where the bulk of the money goes.

The cleverer and more memorable campaigns will obviously get talked (or perhaps Twittered) about most, but that doesn't mean they'll be the most effective (despite the fantastic drumming gorilla, sales of Cadbury's chocolate have declined over the last year), and the simple click-throughs and sponsored links are likely to remain where the money is made.

Already-sparse newsrooms at every kind of newspaper, from local weeklies to some of the biggest names on what was Fleet Street, are likely to get even more so as budget cuts bite deep.

The Telegraph, for example, has recently lost dozens of highly experienced and often well-known staff through a major editorial reorganisation (though it's hardly alone in taking such measures), and their impact on the quality of the journalism that all these publications can now produce is likely to be laid pretty bare in 2009. Expect to be reading thinner papers over your morning cornflakes in the coming 12 months.

And the Internet? Well, if I could tell you what the next Facebook is going to be, I'd be onto my stockbroker to buy shares in the company that's currently creating it, rather than sitting here writing this blog, but it's a fairly safe bet that it will be something else that we'll quickly realise we can't live without, even though we managed perfectly well before it was invented.

Such is progress....

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