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Mired in stagflation - the road to nowhere

Posted by Jez Davison on July 27, 2011 8:14 AM | 


Yesterday's disappointing GDP figures have heaped more pressure on the Government to scale back its deficit-busting austerity programme.

The 0.2% second quarter rise in output follows six months of stagnation, with the economy effectively flat-lining in the half-year to March.

Negligible growth is not what Chancellor George Osborne had in mind last year when he announced his grand masterplan to get Britain's finances in order.

His modus operandi is to create a leaner public sector through deep spending cuts, creating a space for the private sector to grow.

The figures indicate that this clearly has not happened and with companies squeezed by higher inflation, the situation is unlikely to improve any time soon.

Business groups say the Chancellor needs to do more to get the economy moving again.

Access to finance remains a problem and Business Secretary Vince Cable admitted as much yesterday.

His Merlin project to get the banks lending again has had little impact and businesses say they are being denied loans at affordable rates.

Meanwhile, the red tape culture which strangled the life out of companies under Labour shows little sign of disappearing.

There is a pressing need to get Britain's booming budget deficit down - but not at the expense of economic growth.

The country is dangerously close to, if not already in, a prolonged period of stagflation: a toxic mix of high prices and low growth.

The Bank of England says inflation will come down eventually but this becomes harder to believe when petrol, food, gas and electricity prices are going through the roof.

Climbing out of the quagmire will be a slow and arduous process.

The Chancellor has vowed to stand by his deficit-cutting measures but that will become harder - some say untenable - if growth slips into negative territory.

Talk of an economic bounce-back looks cheap when corporate insolvencies are on the rise and if Britain suffers a small contraction in quarter three it would hardly be a surprise.

Mr Osborne is right on one count: Britain is in an age of austerity and there is no easy way out of this mess.

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