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When leading economist Roger Bootle came to the North East last week to deliver his verdict on the state of the economy, there weren't many people in the room who expected good news.
His speech came on the day that the ONS announced the latest jobs figures showing that UK unemployment rose by 80,000 in the three months to July this year. The figures also showed that in the North East 136,000 people are now out of work, or 10.7 per cent of the population aged 16 or over.
If this was a warm up for the managing director of Capital Economics and former advisor to No.11, then it certainly sent a chill around the room. You may be surprised to hear that as Roger took his seat at the end of his speech, there was a definite sense of optimism, okay that may be taking it a bit too far, but at least a sense that things may not be as bad as we had feared.
Manufacturing was once the pulse that kept this region and much of country alive. After decades of decline, Roger, who is also an Economic Adviser to Deloitte, believes that it could be about to breathe new life into the North East as he predicts growth in the sector will continue. He also told the willing audience that in his opinion, interest rates will remain at their historic low for at least two more years. He was of course the man who predicted that we would be in for five years of low interest rates. Despite many raised eyebrows at the time, not many would disagree now.
Let's not get carried away though. Public sector cuts have yet to really bite and few places are more dependent. Roger also warned that the North East export market could be badly affected by the crisis in the Eurozone which shows no sign of being resolved without serious shockwaves in one form or another.
But perhaps, among all the doom and gloom, we should be grateful that there is some light at the end of this rather long tunnel.
Simon Manning is Manufacturing Partner for Deloitte in the North East.
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